Four years in, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has developed its own peculiar grammar. In early May, both sides declared ceasefires — separately, on different dates, for different reasons. Russia announced a pause for Victory Day. Ukraine announced one first, on its own terms. Neither waited for the other. Putin, speaking after the Victory Day parade in Moscow, signalled that the war may be coming to an end, and said he was ready to hold direct talks with Zelenskyy in Moscow or a neutral country. The gesture landed with the weight such gestures carry after four years of identical gestures.
What the gentleman needs to understand is this: the conflict has moved beyond its military phase into something more deliberate — a diplomatic waiting game in which every party, Washington, Brussels, Kyiv, Moscow, is maneuvering for the best position at a table that has not yet been set. Ukraine announced its own ceasefire regime independently, having received no official communication from Russia regarding the terms of any cessation of hostilities.
The war ends when someone decides the cost of continuing exceeds the cost of compromise. That calculation is still being made.